澳洲联储7年来首度减息  会议声明呈中性

发布日期(美国时间)

2008/09/02

利率动向

调低基准利率25个基点，至7.00%。

会后声明重点

金融市场: 国际金融市场的状况依旧困难，信贷将持续紧缩的忧虑也被突出。

总体经济表现: 信贷紧缩、燃料成本上涨以及房产价格下跌令需求被抑制；家庭支出指标在近几个月已经持续减弱，对家庭和商业的信贷增速也显著放缓；调查显示商业活动正在走软，并且劳工市场出现早期宽松的迹象。

通货膨胀: 由于受到全球能源和原材料价格高企影响，通胀短期可能继续维持高位。但未来的需求前景暗示包括CPI在内的通胀指标将在未来下降。

会后声明重点(英文)

Financial markets: Conditions in international financial markets remain difficult, with heightened concerns over credit persisting.

Economy: The evidence is that the tight financial conditions, in conjunction with other factors including higher fuel costs and lower asset values, have exerted the needed restraint on demand. Indicators of household spending have recorded subdued outcomes over recent months, and credit expansion to both households and businesses has slowed. Surveys suggest a softening in business activity and growth in production has slowed.  Indicators of capacity utilisation, while still high, are declining and there have also been some signs of an easing in labour market conditions.

Inflation: Inflation is likely to remain relatively high in the short term, with the CPI affected by the high global oil prices in mid year and other increases in raw materials prices. But looking further ahead, the outlook for demand suggests that inflation in both CPI and underlying terms is likely to decline over time.

备注提示

澳洲联储表示有进一步放松货币政策的空间，声明温和。

发布日期(美国时间)

2008/08/05

利率动向

维持基准利率在7.25%。

会后声明重点

金融市场: 国际金融市场的状况依旧困难，信贷将持续紧缩的忧虑也被突出。

总体经济表现: 信贷紧缩、燃料成本上涨以及房产价格下跌令需求被抑制；家庭支出指标在近几个月已经持续减弱，对家庭和商业的信贷增速也显著放缓；调查显示商业活动正在走软，并且劳工市场出现早期宽松的迹象。

通货膨胀: 在过去一年中，澳洲闲置产能有限，早期需求强劲增长，澳洲通胀已经处于高位。这一点在最近的消费者物价指数中再度得以体现。但通胀和CPI均将在未来一段时间内回落。

会后声明重点(英文)

Financial markets: Conditions in international financial markets remain difficult, with heightened concerns over credit persisting.

Economy: The evidence is that the tightening in financial conditions, in conjunction with other factors including rising fuel costs, and lower asset values, has restrained demand. Indicators of household spending have continued to record subdued outcomes over recent months, and credit expansion to both households and businesses has slowed significantly.   And there have also been some early signs of an easing in labour market conditions.

Inflation: Inflation in Australia has been high over the past year in an environment of limited spare capacity and earlier strong growth in demand. Inflation in both CPI and underlying terms is likely to decline over time

备注提示

澳洲联储强调国内需求正在放缓，通胀在未来一段时间内回落，暗示货币政策立场转向温和的几率增加。声明偏向温和，市场开始预期9月降息。

发布日期(美国时间)

2008/07/01

利率动向

维持基准利率在7.25%。

会后声明重点

金融市场: 全球金融市场环境依然严峻，过去几个月里，信贷担忧情绪再次浮现。

总体经济表现: 受金融环境收紧、燃料成本上升等因素的影响，澳大利亚国内需求正在放缓。劳动力市场也出现了试探性的放缓迹象。

通货膨胀: 澳洲国内需求和通胀前景仍不确定。总体看来，尽管通胀前景仍令人感到担忧，但澳洲联储相信澳大利亚国内需求会在今年逐渐降温。

会后声明重点(英文)

Financial markets: Conditions in international financial markets remain difficult, with credit concerns resurfacing in the past month.

Economy: The evidence is that the tightening in financial conditions, in conjunction with other factors including rising fuel costs, is working to restrain demand. Indicators of household spending have recorded subdued outcomes over recent months, and credit expansion to both households and businesses has weakened significantly. There have also been some tentative signs of an easing in labour market conditions.

Inflation: Considerable uncertainty remains about the outlook for demand and inflation. On balance, while the inflation outlook remains concerning, the Board's assessment continues to be that demand growth will be moderate this year.

备注提示

重申国内需求正在放缓，强调当前货币政策适宜，声明偏于温和。

发布日期(美国时间)

2008/06/03

利率动向

维持基准利率在7.25%。

会后声明重点

金融市场: 国际金融市场状况有所改善，但依然面临困境。

总体经济表现: 有迹象表明需求正在放缓。劳动力市场数据维持强劲，家庭消费数据在过去几个月放缓，家庭和企业的信贷扩张都出现明显缩减。

通货膨胀: 短期通胀可能维持相对高位，但预计在需求放缓的背景下回落。若需求放缓的速度不及预期，或高企通胀开始影响薪资物价设定，货币政策展望可能改变。

会后声明重点(英文)

Financial markets: Conditions in international financial markets, though gradually improving, also remain difficult.

Economy: The evidence is that this is helping to produce a moderation in demand. While labour market conditions to date have remained strong, indicators of household spending have recorded subdued outcomes over recent months, and credit expansion to both households and businesses has weakened significantly.

Inflation: In the short term, inflation is likely to remain relatively high, but it should decline over time provided demand evolves as expected. Should demand not slow as expected, or should expectations of high ongoing inflation begin to affect wage and price setting, that outlook would need to be reviewed.

备注提示

联储采取观望策略，同时强调需求放缓和通胀高企，会后声明中性。

发布日期(美国时间)

2008/05/06

利率动向

维持基准利率在7.25%。

会后声明重点

金融市场: 国际金融市场状况近几周虽有改善，但依然困难。

总体经济表现: 家庭支出数据近几个月开始放缓，包括家庭和企业的信贷需求已经放缓。

通货膨胀: 短期通胀可能维持相对高位，但预计在需求放缓的背景下回落。若需求放缓的速度不及预期，或高企通胀开始影响薪资物价设定，货币政策展望可能改变。

会后声明重点(英文)

Financial markets: Conditions in international financial markets, though improved in recent weeks, also remain difficult.

Economy: Indicators of household spending have recorded subdued outcomes over recent months, and demand for credit by both households and businesses has weakened.

Inflation: In the short term, inflation is likely to remain relatively high, but it should decline over time provided demand evolves as expected. Should demand not slow as expected or should expectations of high ongoing inflation begin to affect wage and price setting, that outlook would need to be reviewed.

备注提示

联储采取观望策略，同时强调需求放缓和通胀高企，会后声明中性。

发布日期(美国时间)

2008/04/01

利率动向

维持基准利率在7.25%。

会后声明重点

金融市场: 全球金融市场状况仍相当脆弱，澳大利亚金融机构的融资成本上升，并转嫁至借款人。

总体经济表现: 国内需求飙升令07年澳大利亚经济增长强劲，劳动力市场继续紧缩。但其他信息显示国内需求正在放缓，商业和消费者情绪在08年初走软，信贷需求也有所削减。

通货膨胀: 短期通胀可能维持相对高位，包括CPI在内的通胀数据可能在未来一个财年进一步上扬，但预期需求放缓将令通胀在未来回落。

会后声明重点(英文)

Financial markets: Sentiment in global financial markets remains quite fragile and Australian financial intermediaries are experiencing increases in funding costs, which are being passed on to borrowers.

Economy: Information becoming available from the national accounts over the past month confirmed that the Australian economy grew strongly through 2007, driven by rapid growth in domestic spending. Employment has also continued to grow strongly. However, other recent information provides tentative evidence that growth in domestic demand is moderating. Business and consumer sentiment have softened in the early part of 2008, and credit demand has slowed somewhat.

Inflation: In the short term, inflation is likely to remain relatively high, and both the CPI and underlying measures will probably rise further in year-ended terms in the March quarter. However, inflation should decline over time, provided demand slows as expected.

备注提示

澳大利亚国内需求出现初步放缓迹象，但强调通胀担忧，声明中性。

发布日期(美国时间)

2008/03/04

利率动向

调高基准利率25个基点，至7.25%。

会后声明重点

金融市场: 全球金融市场状况仍相当脆弱，澳大利亚金融机构的融资成本上升，并转嫁至借款人。

总体经济表现: 市场需求出现了试探性的回调，消费者和商业信心近期略有下降，家庭信贷需求正在放缓。

通货膨胀: 短期通胀可能维持相对高位，通胀压力在09年缓和之前可能进一步加大。

会后声明重点(英文)

Financial markets: Sentiment in global financial markets remains fragile. Australian financial intermediaries are experiencing increases in funding costs, which are being passed on to customers.

Economy: There is tentative evidence that some moderation in household demand is beginning to occur, with business and consumer sentiment softer recently, and household credit demand slowing somewhat.

Inflation: Inflation is likely to remain relatively high in the short term, and will probably rise further in year‑ended terms, before moderating next year in response to slower growth in demand.

备注提示

尽管升息25个基点，但会后声明指出市场需求试探性回落，措辞比预期温和。

发布日期(美国时间)

2008/02/05

利率动向

调高基准利率25个基点，至7.00%。

会后声明重点

金融市场: 短期金融市场压力减轻，但仍相当脆弱，澳大利亚金融机构的融资成本上升，并已转嫁至借款人。

总体经济表现: 07年下半年以来的需求数据依然强劲，产能利用率处于高位，劳动力紧缩状况持续。

通货膨胀: 短期通胀可能维持相对高位，并在年底前持续走高，联储预期通胀将在09年放缓。

会后声明重点(英文)

Financial markets: The pressures in short-term money markets seen late last year have eased in recent weeks, but sentiment in international capital and equity markets remains fragile. In Australia, financial intermediaries have passed on higher costs to their customers over the past couple of months.

Economy: Indicators of demand remained strong through the second half of 2007, and reports of high capacity usage and shortages of suitable labour persist.

Inflation: In the short term, inflation is likely to remain relatively high and will probably rise further in year‑ended terms, though the Bank expects it to moderate somewhat next year.

备注提示

声明表达对通胀的担忧，指出经济依然强劲，暗示还有升息空间。