澳洲联储大手笔降息欧、美央行跟进机率加大

澳洲联储周二宣布降息100个基点，至6.0%，降息幅度为市场预期的两倍，同时也是1992年以来的最大降息手笔。该消息公布后，澳元/美元自0.72附近一度下挫近200点，但稍后大力拉升，并短暂突破0.73，反映出降息之后市场风险偏好有所回升。

澳洲联储主席史蒂文斯(Glenn Stevens)及同僚们出人意料地一次性将基准利率从原先的7%下调至6%。有经济学家认为，澳洲联储的降息举措是主要央行协同降息的第一步，其他主要央行可能会在近期做出降息决定。

澳洲联储在会后声明中指出，全球金融市场状况在9月份急剧恶化，对澳洲金融市场产生了负面影响，但相对而言，澳洲金融系统仍较为稳定。澳洲联储认为，这一降息幅度有助于降低融资成本，缓解信贷紧缩的局面。

对于澳洲经济，澳洲联储认为，澳洲国内需求可能不及预期的强劲，同时国际贸易条件可能会进一步恶化，而亚洲经济增长也正在放缓，因此，当局认为目前应当实施比以往宽松一些的货币政策。而在通胀方面，澳洲联储认为，全球通胀压力有望在09年得到缓解，并强调央行将坚持将通胀水平调控至目标区间。

经济学家认为，全球金融市场动荡，加之澳洲国内消费支出以及家庭借贷的下滑促使史蒂文斯决定大幅减息，而澳洲经济也在今年2季度放缓至3年来的最低水平。全球信贷紧缩也使得融资成本提升，暗示今日的降息举措未必能使市场借贷利率也下降至于目标水平完全吻合的程度。

澳洲圣乔治银行(St George Bank)的资深市场经济学家Besa Deda表示，澳洲联储的降息举措或许是全球央行协同降息行动的第一步。他表示：“我认为全球央行今晚可能采取统一行动。而澳洲联储将在11月份再次降息，尽管降息幅度可能不是100个基点。”他强调，澳洲联储还有更多放宽货币的空间，在信贷危机逐步恶化的形势下尤为如此。

荷兰银行(ABN Amro)的分析师Greg Gibbs也表示，澳洲联储降息100个基点，为其他央行大举降息敲开了大门。

在利率决定公布之后，澳元/美元一度被猛烈抛售，汇价短线大跌200点左右，最低跌至0.7033，跌幅高达2.6%。不过，澳洲股市也因降息获得拯救，午盘强劲反弹收高25点左右，早盘曾一度大跌100逾点。矿业巨擎必和必拓午盘上扬4.1%，带动大盘走强。

亚太周边股市，日经指数午盘也缩减跌幅至2%以内，汉城指数也收复早盘失地。股市反弹，刺激了套息交易，澳元/美元自时段低点强力拉升，先后收复0.7100和0.7200两道整数关口，并一度上探至0.7300上方，目前回撤至0.7200-50区间波动。

Besa Deda预计，澳元/美元或在欧洲市场上持稳，因澳洲联储的举措将刺激经济增长，并且美元看似有些超买。Greg Gibbs也认为，如果其他银行也采取行动，那么可能会抵消此次降息对澳元的影响，澳元/美元将维持在0.7000附近，周末前有望走高。

北京时间12:27，澳元/美元报0.7221/27。

附表：

◎2008年起澳洲联储(RBA)利率会议结果追踪

发布日期	2008/10/07
利率动向	调低基准利率100个基点，至6.00%。
会后声明重点	金融市场: 国际金融市场9月恶化程度加深，未来一段时间内全球融资可能困难。总体经济表现: 主要经济体经济活动疲弱，有迹象表明澳大利亚的主要亚洲贸易伙伴的经济加速放缓。尽管近期澳大利亚贸易依然上升，但随着许多商品价格触回落，09年澳大利亚贸易增长将可能放缓。通货膨胀: 9月CPI年率可能依然维持5%左右水平，但澳洲联储依然维持通胀将在09年开始回落的观点。
会后声明重点(英文)	Financial markets: Conditions in international financial markets took a significant turn for the worse in September. Financing is likely to be difficult around the world for some time ahead. Economy: Economic activity in the major countries is also weakening, and evidence is accumulating of a significant moderation in growth in Australia’s trading partners in Asia. The expansionary effects of the recent surge in Australia’s terms of trade are still coming through, but some decline in the terms of trade now looks likely over the coming year, with many commodity prices having declined from their peaks. Inflation: The next CPI is likely to show an increase of around 5 per cent over the four quarters to September, but the Bank remains of the view that inflation will start to decline in 2009.
备注提示	澳洲联储表示在当前背景下，采取非常规的大幅降息措施，有利于显著降低借贷成本；但同时表示该举措并不意味着未来利率政策遵循该模式。
发布日期	2008/09/02
利率动向	调低基准利率25个基点，至7.00%。
会后声明重点	金融市场: 国际金融市场的状况依旧困难，信贷将持续紧缩的忧虑也被突出。总体经济表现: 信贷紧缩、燃料成本上涨以及房产价格下跌令需求被抑制；家庭支出指标在近几个月已经持续减弱，对家庭和商业的信贷增速也显著放缓；调查显示商业活动正在走软，并且劳工市场出现早期宽松的迹象。通货膨胀: 由于受到全球能源和原材料价格高企影响，通胀短期可能继续维持高位。但未来的需求前景暗示包括CPI在内的通胀指标将在未来下降。
会后声明重点(英文)	Financial markets: Conditions in international financial markets remain difficult, with heightened concerns over credit persisting. Economy: The evidence is that the tight financial conditions, in conjunction with other factors including higher fuel costs and lower asset values, have exerted the needed restraint on demand. Indicators of household spending have recorded subdued outcomes over recent months, and credit expansion to both households and businesses has slowed. Surveys suggest a softening in business activity and growth in production has slowed. Indicators of capacity utilisation, while still high, are declining and there have also been some signs of an easing in labour market conditions. Inflation: Inflation is likely to remain relatively high in the short term, with the CPI affected by the high global oil prices in mid year and other increases in raw materials prices. But looking further ahead, the outlook for demand suggests that inflation in both CPI and underlying terms is likely to decline over time.
备注提示	澳洲联储表示有进一步放松货币政策的空间，声明温和。
发布日期	2008/08/05
利率动向	维持基准利率在7.25%。
会后声明重点	金融市场: 国际金融市场的状况依旧困难，信贷将持续紧缩的忧虑也被突出。总体经济表现: 信贷紧缩、燃料成本上涨以及房产价格下跌令需求被抑制；家庭支出指标在近几个月已经持续减弱，对家庭和商业的信贷增速也显著放缓；调查显示商业活动正在走软，并且劳工市场出现早期宽松的迹象。通货膨胀: 在过去一年中，澳洲闲置产能有限，早期需求强劲增长，澳洲通胀已经处于高位。这一点在最近的消费者物价指数中再度得以体现。但通胀和CPI均将在未来一段时间内回落。
会后声明重点(英文)	Financial markets: Conditions in international financial markets remain difficult, with heightened concerns over credit persisting. Economy: The evidence is that the tightening in financial conditions, in conjunction with other factors including rising fuel costs, and lower asset values, has restrained demand. Indicators of household spending have continued to record subdued outcomes over recent months, and credit expansion to both households and businesses has slowed significantly. And there have also been some early signs of an easing in labour market conditions. Inflation: Inflation in Australia has been high over the past year in an environment of limited spare capacity and earlier strong growth in demand. Inflation in both CPI and underlying terms is likely to decline over time
备注提示	澳洲联储强调国内需求正在放缓，通胀在未来一段时间内回落，暗示货币政策立场转向温和的几率增加。声明偏向温和，市场开始预期9月降息。
发布日期	2008/07/01
利率动向	维持基准利率在7.25%。
会后声明重点	金融市场: 全球金融市场环境依然严峻，过去几个月里，信贷担忧情绪再次浮现。总体经济表现: 受金融环境收紧、燃料成本上升等因素的影响，澳大利亚国内需求正在放缓。劳动力市场也出现了试探性的放缓迹象。通货膨胀: 澳洲国内需求和通胀前景仍不确定。总体看来，尽管通胀前景仍令人感到担忧，但澳洲联储相信澳大利亚国内需求会在今年逐渐降温。
会后声明重点(英文)	Financial markets: Conditions in international financial markets remain difficult, with credit concerns resurfacing in the past month. Economy: The evidence is that the tightening in financial conditions, in conjunction with other factors including rising fuel costs, is working to restrain demand. Indicators of household spending have recorded subdued outcomes over recent months, and credit expansion to both households and businesses has weakened significantly. There have also been some tentative signs of an easing in labour market conditions. Inflation: Considerable uncertainty remains about the outlook for demand and inflation. On balance, while the inflation outlook remains concerning, the Board's assessment continues to be that demand growth will be moderate this year.
备注提示	重申国内需求正在放缓，强调当前货币政策适宜，声明偏于温和。
发布日期	2008/06/03
利率动向	维持基准利率在7.25%。
会后声明重点	金融市场: 国际金融市场状况有所改善，但依然面临困境。总体经济表现: 有迹象表明需求正在放缓。劳动力市场数据维持强劲，家庭消费数据在过去几个月放缓，家庭和企业的信贷扩张都出现明显缩减。通货膨胀: 短期通胀可能维持相对高位，但预计在需求放缓的背景下回落。若需求放缓的速度不及预期，或高企通胀开始影响薪资物价设定，货币政策展望可能改变。
会后声明重点(英文)	Financial markets: Conditions in international financial markets, though gradually improving, also remain difficult. Economy: The evidence is that this is helping to produce a moderation in demand. While labour market conditions to date have remained strong, indicators of household spending have recorded subdued outcomes over recent months, and credit expansion to both households and businesses has weakened significantly. Inflation: In the short term, inflation is likely to remain relatively high, but it should decline over time provided demand evolves as expected. Should demand not slow as expected, or should expectations of high ongoing inflation begin to affect wage and price setting, that outlook would need to be reviewed.
备注提示	联储采取观望策略，同时强调需求放缓和通胀高企，会后声明中性。
发布日期	2008/05/06
利率动向	维持基准利率在7.25%。
会后声明重点	金融市场: 国际金融市场状况近几周虽有改善，但依然困难。总体经济表现: 家庭支出数据近几个月开始放缓，包括家庭和企业的信贷需求已经放缓。通货膨胀: 短期通胀可能维持相对高位，但预计在需求放缓的背景下回落。若需求放缓的速度不及预期，或高企通胀开始影响薪资物价设定，货币政策展望可能改变。
会后声明重点(英文)	Financial markets: Conditions in international financial markets, though improved in recent weeks, also remain difficult. Economy: Indicators of household spending have recorded subdued outcomes over recent months, and demand for credit by both households and businesses has weakened. Inflation: In the short term, inflation is likely to remain relatively high, but it should decline over time provided demand evolves as expected. Should demand not slow as expected or should expectations of high ongoing inflation begin to affect wage and price setting, that outlook would need to be reviewed.
备注提示	联储采取观望策略，同时强调需求放缓和通胀高企，会后声明中性。
发布日期	2008/04/01
利率动向	维持基准利率在7.25%。
会后声明重点	金融市场: 全球金融市场状况仍相当脆弱，澳大利亚金融机构的融资成本上升，并转嫁至借款人。总体经济表现: 国内需求飙升令07年澳大利亚经济增长强劲，劳动力市场继续紧缩。但其他信息显示国内需求正在放缓，商业和消费者情绪在08年初走软，信贷需求也有所削减。通货膨胀: 短期通胀可能维持相对高位，包括CPI在内的通胀数据可能在未来一个财年进一步上扬，但预期需求放缓将令通胀在未来回落。
会后声明重点(英文)	Financial markets: Sentiment in global financial markets remains quite fragile and Australian financial intermediaries are experiencing increases in funding costs, which are being passed on to borrowers. Economy: Information becoming available from the national accounts over the past month confirmed that the Australian economy grew strongly through 2007, driven by rapid growth in domestic spending. Employment has also continued to grow strongly. However, other recent information provides tentative evidence that growth in domestic demand is moderating. Business and consumer sentiment have softened in the early part of 2008, and credit demand has slowed somewhat. Inflation: In the short term, inflation is likely to remain relatively high, and both the CPI and underlying measures will probably rise further in year-ended terms in the March quarter. However, inflation should decline over time, provided demand slows as expected.
备注提示	澳大利亚国内需求出现初步放缓迹象，但强调通胀担忧，声明中性。
发布日期	2008/03/04
利率动向	调高基准利率25个基点，至7.25%。
会后声明重点	金融市场: 全球金融市场状况仍相当脆弱，澳大利亚金融机构的融资成本上升，并转嫁至借款人。总体经济表现: 市场需求出现了试探性的回调，消费者和商业信心近期略有下降，家庭信贷需求正在放缓。通货膨胀: 短期通胀可能维持相对高位，通胀压力在09年缓和之前可能进一步加大。
会后声明重点(英文)	Financial markets: Sentiment in global financial markets remains fragile. Australian financial intermediaries are experiencing increases in funding costs, which are being passed on to customers. Economy: There is tentative evidence that some moderation in household demand is beginning to occur, with business and consumer sentiment softer recently, and household credit demand slowing somewhat. Inflation: Inflation is likely to remain relatively high in the short term, and will probably rise further in year‑ended terms, before moderating next year in response to slower growth in demand.
备注提示	尽管升息25个基点，但会后声明指出市场需求试探性回落，措辞比预期温和。
发布日期	2008/02/05
利率动向	调高基准利率25个基点，至7.00%。
会后声明重点	金融市场: 短期金融市场压力减轻，但仍相当脆弱，澳大利亚金融机构的融资成本上升，并已转嫁至借款人。总体经济表现: 07年下半年以来的需求数据依然强劲，产能利用率处于高位，劳动力紧缩状况持续。通货膨胀: 短期通胀可能维持相对高位，并在年底前持续走高，联储预期通胀将在09年放缓。
会后声明重点(英文)	Financial markets: The pressures in short-term money markets seen late last year have eased in recent weeks, but sentiment in international capital and equity markets remains fragile. In Australia, financial intermediaries have passed on higher costs to their customers over the past couple of months. Economy: Indicators of demand remained strong through the second half of 2007, and reports of high capacity usage and shortages of suitable labour persist. Inflation: In the short term, inflation is likely to remain relatively high and will probably rise further in year‑ended terms, though the Bank expects it to moderate somewhat next year.
备注提示	声明表达对通胀的担忧，指出经济依然强劲，暗示还有升息空间。